upon itself. Cutting costs in the DM industry leads to smaller mailings, generating fewer fresh names from the market leading to lower response rates. This trend isn’t helped by listowners without conscience who happily rent their “hotlines” diluted by older names which leads to disappointing response – and to ever greater cynicism when mailers prepare their list schedules. Some mailers have stopped mailing temporarily – waiting for better times ahead

Based on calls around the industry, it appears that some level of confidence and higher expectations are now beginning to permeate mailing plans. In this coming autumn mailing season, major mailers are expecting other major mailers to begin mailing again in larger volumes. This is a healthy perception because larger quantities mailed inevitably leads to more “hotline” names, leading to larger mailings leading to even more “hotline” names – and higher response rates – which will lead to an industry which grows again – after a decline.

Many mailers are planning to visit DMA 09 in San Diego in October with a view to catching up with colleagues there looking for reciprocal deals and holding serious plans in mind for higher volume mailings in the months ahead.

Direct Mail Still Works

I don’t know who exactly Borrell Associates are but they certainly stirred the pot recently by claiming that “direct mail has begun spiraling into what we believe is a precipitous decline from which it will never recover”. I’m told Borrell Associates are a “media consultancy” specializing in internet advertising – which no doubt gives them plenty of incentive (and zero authority) to discuss the future of the direct mail business in which they are not engaged.

Fundraising, to name but one sector, continues to be a major user of direct mail. Figures show that fundraising online accounts for only about 2% of total money raised by non-profits in the U.S. A recent survey from “The Chronicle of Philanthropy” indicates that, for many large groups, online giving in fact represents less that 1% of all donations.

Mal Warwick, a well-known consultant to the fundraising industry, was asked his opinion about the Borrell Associates statement describing the demise of direct mail. His brief one-word reply, which will be shared by more than few of us in the direct mail industry, was: “Hogwash”.

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